There’s a good essay in the New Yorker by former Bill Clinton adviser Richard Socarides on the question of whether Obama will declare his support for marriage equality before the election:
The remarkable new reality for Obama in this election is that supporting marriage equality is smart politics. A majority of independents and young voters already favor equal marriage rights. These are important voting blocks, and a key part of the President’s reëlection strategy. Support for gay rights will also help him energize liberals in the Party and others who think he has not acted boldly around core progressive issues such as immigration and the environment and on other civil-rights issues. Hard-right conservatives who strongly oppose marriage rights, meanwhile, will never support Obama anyway.
I agree, and believe this may be the tipping point (I’ve written about this before). All it takes for the president of the United States to declare his support for gay marriage is for doing so to be politically advantageous, and that may now be the case. That’s how it happened in New York: Andrew Cuomo, as principled as his fans might imagine him to be, is a shrewd, calculating politician. Liberals in New York were disappointed with his centrist approach to the budget and tax policy. He saw gay marriage as an opportunity to rally the base. And he did, and is now considered — already, I know — a front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. He is a progressive hero.
It could work for Obama, too. Clearly the Republicans sense danger on this issue. Rick Perry didn’t do himself any favors with his contemptible ad denouncing gay soldiers. Mitt Romney runs for cover every time the question comes up, because, as much as he wants to appease the Republican base, he knows it’ll be a third rail for him in the general election. When he gets asked in debates about “don’t ask, don’t tell,” for example, he demurs, saying, “We ought to be talking about the economy and jobs.” When a politician so inartfully side-steps an issue like that, you know they’re afraid of it.
Obama will have his chance to do this soon. As I’ve written, Democrats in Maryland are planning a major push to legalize same-sex marriage in the new year, when their legislative session starts in January. It will be a long, hard slog — the last time Democrats tried to legalize same-sex marriage, they fell short by just a handful of votes — and it will linger in the national headlines, just as the presidential election takes off and the general election contest begins to take shape. It could be the perfect opportunity for Obama to make his “evolution” on this issue complete.
Tellingly, the margin of victory in Maryland could come from Republicans rather than Democrats, which shows just how far attitudes have shifted on this issue. Allan Kittleman, a Maryland state senator and the only Republican to openly support marriage equality last time around, told me there were a few more Republican votes up for grabs, that several conservative Republicans had assured him privately that they favored marriage equality philosophically, but that politically the switch was too difficult to make. Kittleman, a staunch conservative, said that calculus may be changing:
I think I’m being a very consistent Republican by saying I want freedom economically, I don’t want the government’s overbearing regulations on businesses, I want people to be able to do things in their business life without a lot of government intrusion, but I feel the same way about their personal life … And so I think me being in favor of same-sex marriage is consistent with my Republican philosophy that the government shouldn’t be telling people what to do.
Sal, you are so smart and such a great writer and I am so ashamed to admit this, but the main thing I’m taking away from your smart, well-written post is abject horror.
If Andrew Cuomo ends up getting the 2016 nom and maybe winning the 2016 election, Sandra Lee could potentially be our First Lady. Sandra Lee of the Food Network’s “Semi-Homemade” crapfest or as I like to call it: just throw a packet of ranch-dressing seasoning on anything and you can call it dinner. Also, she’s the one with the tablescapes.
TABLESCAPES.
Hey dignitaries of countries near and far! Get a load of this.
